Betting tips are a market built on selective memory. Everyone posts the winners. Nobody publishes the losers, the stake sizes, or what price the market closed at — the one number that actually says whether a selection was any good.

MaxEdge is the opposite proposition: a football value-betting service where the record is public, the method is arithmetic rather than opinion, and the honest answer on a lot of days is that there is nothing worth backing.

That is a hard thing to design. The entire visual language of the category is hype — green arrows, streak counters, urgency. We needed a product that reads as an instrument, not a tipster.

We price every match across 15+ bookmakers and strip the margin out, which turns a shop price into a fair probability. The gap between our model's number and that fair number is the edge — and it is arithmetic, not a view.

A model only publishes once we have measured how wrong it usually is. Three of the five we built failed that calibration test. They were switched off, not softened, not relabelled as 'experimental'. Two publish today: a goals model and a sharp line model.

The surviving models are judged on whether they beat the closing price across hundreds of selections, not on whether they had a good season. A coin flip has good seasons.

Every claim on screen is shown with the number underneath it. A selection displays the bookmaker's implied probability with vig, the fair probability without it, the model's probability, and the gap between them in percentage points. There is nowhere for a rounded-up number to hide.

The design leans on the instrument tradition — mono numerals, tight data density, restraint with colour — so the interface reads as measurement rather than persuasion. Colour is used for status, never for excitement.

The free tier is a real product, not a trailer: one backed selection a day when there is one, fifty tracked bets, the full profit-and-loss curve, and every model's calibration data. All of it, always. The paid tier adds the rest of the board, not the honesty.

Live at maxedge.live. The public ledger has been running since 6 August 2026, settling every published signal against the real result and the closing price — winners and losers both.

As it stands: 83 signals, 75 settled, a 48% win rate and +1.3% adjusted closing-line value against the de-vigged closing price. The sharp line model has beaten the close on 82.6% of its 220 settled picks at +6.1% return per bet; the goals model on 57.7% of 269 at +0.6%.

Free tier and a single paid plan at £12.99 a month, billed through Stripe. Tracking only: MaxEdge records selections and settles them, and never places a bet.

Built to UK responsible-gambling norms throughout — 18+, BeGambleAware, and explicit that model output is not financial advice.